oppn parties The UP Scenario: Not Easy For Akhilesh Yadav

News Snippets

  • Maratha quota bill likely to be tabled in Maharashtra assembly today
  • Arvind Kejriwal skips ED summons for the 6th time, says the case is in court and will follow court's decision
  • PM Modi says UP has gone from 'red tape' to 'red carpet' in 7 years of 'double engine' government
  • Farm unions reject government offers, to resume Delhi march from today
  • Centre says some Aadhar cards in Bengal 'deactivated' due to technical glitz, will be activated back soon
  • Supreme Court stays LS privilege panel summons to Bengal officials over BJP MP Sukanta Majumdar injury case
  • Supreme Court junks Sandeshkhali petition, says it cannot be compared to Manipur, asks petitioner to approach Calcutta HC
  • Supreme Court gets tough on Chandigarh mayoral elections, asks for ballot papers and video footage, does not order re-election
  • Government starts withdrawing old small tax demands, up to Rs 25000 per entry till FY 2009-10 and up to Rs 10000 per entry from FY 2010-11 to FY 2014-15 with an overall ceiling of Rs 1 lakh per tax payer
  • Stocks remained positive on Monday: Sensex gained 281 points to 72708 and Nifty 81 points to 22122
  • Jasprit Bumrah likely to be rested for 4th Test while K L Rahul may be back
  • FIH Pro League hockey: India beat Spain 8-7 in shootout
  • SP leader Salim Sherwani, miffed at no Muslim candidate given RS ticket, quits party
  • Army going for big (Rs 57000cr) upgrade in combat vehicles to replace T-72 tanks
  • Mamata Banerjee says the BJP is doing nothing to resolve the Sandeshkhali dispute but instead fanning the fires to escalate it
History created in Supreme Court as Chandigarh mayoral poll ballots counted in court, judges declare AAP candidate Kuldeep Kumar winner after taking into account the votes defaced by returning officer Anil Masih
oppn parties
The UP Scenario: Not Easy For Akhilesh Yadav

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-01-17 03:11:06

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

In an excellent analysis of how transfer of votes from the BJP and other parties to the SP would affect the results in the UP elections, Rahul Verma and Vaibhav Parik, both with Centre of Policy Research, New Delhi, have shown in an article in India Today that Akhilesh Yadav will needs a swing of more than 8 percent votes in the best case scenario and more than 11 percent in the worst case scenario to get majority in the assembly, and about a percent less to get more seats than the BJP without getting a majority.

Their analysis clearly shows that while it is good to check all the caste boxes, as Akhilesh has been doing by snaring OBC leaders from the BJP and other parties to add to his Yadav and Muslim vote bank, it is the manner in which votes are actually transferred on the ground that matters when it comes to winning seats. They have shown how if the SP manages to get transfer of votes from other parties, it will not be enough to unseat the BJP. For SP to unseat the BJP, the transfer of votes will have to majorly come from the BJP. The BJP must lose votes and those votes must be transferred to the SP for it to win sizeable number of seats at the BJPs cost.

This means that Akhilesh Yadav and his alliance still have a lot of hard work to do and run an effective campaign if it wishes to get a majority as it will have to lure the BJP voter to vote for it this time. It will have to ensure that the BJP vote share dips to the extent required and majority of it comes to the SP alliance. That is not going to be a very easy task.

But the SP can take heart from the fact that after the departure of several OBC leaders from the BJP and their entry into SP, the votes of the OBC community might get transferred to the SP alliance. The BJP had swept UP with a 24.67% swing in its favour which got it 312 seats in 2017. At that time, the SP had lost 7.33% vote share and 177 seats while the BSP had lost 3.68% vote share and 61 seats. BJPs social engineering had transferred most SP and BSP votes to it. Akhilesh Yadav can hope that his own brand of social engineering will do the same for the SP this time.


Read the India Today article here