oppn parties The Economy: Contraction Slowing, But Real Growth Still A Long Distance Away

News Snippets

  • 2nd ODI: Rohit Sharma roars back to form with a scintillating ton as India beat England by 4 wickets in a high scoring match in Cuttack
  • Supreme Court will appoint an observer for the mayoral poll in Chandigarh
  • Government makes it compulsory for plastic carry bag makers to put a QR or barcode with their details on such bags
  • GBS outbreak in Pune leaves 73 ill with 14 on ventilator. GBS is a rare but treatable autoimmune disease
  • Madhya Pradesh government banned sale and consumption of liquor at 19 religious sites including Ujjain and Chitrakoot
  • Odisha emerges at the top in the fiscal health report of states while Haryana is at the bottom
  • JSW Steel net profit takes a massive hit of 70% in Q3
  • Tatas buy 60% stake in Pegatron, the contractor making iPhone's in India
  • Stocks return to negative zone - Sensex sheds 329 points to 76190 and Nifty loses 113 points to 23092
  • Bumrah, Jadeja and Yashasvi Jaiswal make the ICC Test team of the year even as no Indian found a place in the ODI squad
  • India take on England in the second T20 today at Chennai. They lead the 5-match series 1-0
  • Ravindra Jadeja excels in Ranji Trophy, takes 12 wickets in the match as Saurashtra beat Delhi by 10 wickets. All other Team India stars disappoint in the national tournament
  • Madhya Pradesh HC says collectors must not apply NSA "under political pressure and without application of mind"
  • Oxfam charged by CBI over violation of FCRA
  • Indian students in the US have started quitting part-time jobs (which are not legally allowed as per visa rules) over fears of deportation
Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh resigns after meeting Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP chief J P Nadda /////// President's Rule likely in Manipur
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The Economy: Contraction Slowing, But Real Growth Still A Long Distance Away

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2020-11-28 11:24:56

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

The Indian economy technically entered a period of recession as it contracted by 7.5 % in the second quarter of 2020-21. Although the decline was lower than expected (most economists had expected a 10% decline while the RBI had put out a figure of 8.6%), still the slump was enough to sound alarm bells. While the government said that the numbers were better than expected and the potential for upsurge was visible, it also sounded a worrying note for a second wave of Covid infections.

But the figures are not so rosy. Except for agriculture, which grew at 3.4% (Q1 3.4%), manufacturing which grew at 0.6% (Q1 -39.3%), and power and gas, which grew at 4.4% (Q1 -7 %), most other sectors continued to show negative growth. Services continued to be heavily in red. Although the rate of contraction was narrowing, yet the sentiment was not improving.

Core sector industries showed a decline of 2.5% as refinery output and steel production declined enormously. The dismal performance of this sector has a huge bearing on the overall industrial data as core sector carries a weight of 40%. Similarly, the services sector has always contributed handsomely to the GDP. It is a sign of the times we live in, where personal contact is avoided, that the services sector is showing continued negative growth. It also means that despite penetration of mobiles and internet, online transactions have not really taken off as expected, which was reflected in financial and professional services declining by a bigger 8.1% in Q2 (Q1 5.3%).

When it is considered that Q2 included the festive season buying, one does not have much hope for Q3 based on these numbers. Demand has not shot up as a whole and the December GST collection figures will give a better picture of which way the economy is headed from here. Although the government talks about having done much through its Covid packages, those were all supply side and lending packages. They have clearly not had the desired effect of boosting demand. Hence, the government should not further delay investments in infrastructure projects. Only then will core sectors show positivity and the whole economy will perk up as a result of that.