oppn parties The Economy: Contraction Slowing, But Real Growth Still A Long Distance Away

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  • India's sovereign green bonds were oversubscribed four times as the RBI received 266 bids worth Rs 32892cr agaisnt the target of Rs 8000cr
  • Google tweaks its Android and India app store policy to allow manufacturers and users to choose certain things instead of compulsorily using Google apps after the CCI order and fine for unfairly dominating the market
  • Former US secretary of state calls former Indian external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj a "goofback" and a "hinterland political hack". MEA S Jaishankar slams him
  • Jamia screening of BBC documentary on Gujarat riots cancelled after the university was turned into a fortress and later 13 students were detained by the police
  • Supreme Court grants conditional interim bail for eight weeks to Lakhimpur Kheri accused Ashish Mishra. The bail can be further extended based on his conduct. He was asked to stay outside Delhi-NCR and UP and surrender his passport
  • After the JNU administration tried to thwart the students from screening the BBC documentary on the Gujarat riots and PM Modi, now students of Presidency and Jadavpur universities in Kolkata have decided to screen it 5 times next week
  • While a US research frim Hindenburg says its analysis found the Adani group overleveraged and claimed that its bubble will burst very soon and that sent the price of group companies crashing (Adani companies lost a combined Rs 55000cr), Adani group said the report was 'baseless' and 'malicious'
  • This time Enforcement Directorate arrests TMC spokesperson Saket Gokhale under PMLA for money laundering
  • Padma awards announced on Republic Day: Mulayam Singh Yadav, architect Balkrishna Doshi and ORS pioneer Dilip Mahalanobis get Padma Bibhushan posthumously, Padma Bhushan ius awarded to Kumar Mangalam Birla and 8 others and 91 get Padma Shri
  • Stocks fall big time on Wednesday on F&O expiry, finalncial and banks take big hit: Sensex tumbles 773 points to 60205 and Nifty 226 points to 17892 even as the market volatility meter shoots up by 8.51%
  • World Cup hockey: Germany stun England 4-3 to reach semifinals; Netherlands beat Korea 5-1 to enter last four
  • Australian Open: Sania Mirza and Rohan Bopanna reach the finals
  • Suryakumar Yadav is named ICC Cricketer of the Year 2022 and Renuka Singh gets the ICC Emerging Cricketer of the Year 2022 award
  • BCCI gets a whopping Rs 4670cr in the auctions for the 5 teams in WIPL or as it will be known now, WPL. Adani Sportline gets Ahmedabad for Rs 1289cr while Mumbai Indians get Mumbai for 913cr
  • Calcutta HC overturns the hookah bar ban in Kolkata by saying that it is not an illegal trade
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The Economy: Contraction Slowing, But Real Growth Still A Long Distance Away

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2020-11-28 11:24:56

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

The Indian economy technically entered a period of recession as it contracted by 7.5 % in the second quarter of 2020-21. Although the decline was lower than expected (most economists had expected a 10% decline while the RBI had put out a figure of 8.6%), still the slump was enough to sound alarm bells. While the government said that the numbers were better than expected and the potential for upsurge was visible, it also sounded a worrying note for a second wave of Covid infections.

But the figures are not so rosy. Except for agriculture, which grew at 3.4% (Q1 3.4%), manufacturing which grew at 0.6% (Q1 -39.3%), and power and gas, which grew at 4.4% (Q1 -7 %), most other sectors continued to show negative growth. Services continued to be heavily in red. Although the rate of contraction was narrowing, yet the sentiment was not improving.

Core sector industries showed a decline of 2.5% as refinery output and steel production declined enormously. The dismal performance of this sector has a huge bearing on the overall industrial data as core sector carries a weight of 40%. Similarly, the services sector has always contributed handsomely to the GDP. It is a sign of the times we live in, where personal contact is avoided, that the services sector is showing continued negative growth. It also means that despite penetration of mobiles and internet, online transactions have not really taken off as expected, which was reflected in financial and professional services declining by a bigger 8.1% in Q2 (Q1 5.3%).

When it is considered that Q2 included the festive season buying, one does not have much hope for Q3 based on these numbers. Demand has not shot up as a whole and the December GST collection figures will give a better picture of which way the economy is headed from here. Although the government talks about having done much through its Covid packages, those were all supply side and lending packages. They have clearly not had the desired effect of boosting demand. Hence, the government should not further delay investments in infrastructure projects. Only then will core sectors show positivity and the whole economy will perk up as a result of that.