May 31, 2023

The stock exchanges finally seem to have shaken off the indecisive phase to enter the grip of the bulls. Or have they? If appearances were ever deceptive, the record levels of Nifty and Sensex now are very much so. For, despite the Nifty closing at 9771 points and the Sensex at 31715, the volumes were thin across the board. This effectively means that just a few traders – and trades - are jacking up the prices. It obviously does not mean that the bourses are being rigged, for all the other sector-wise indices were also on fire and selling pressure was not witnessed at higher levels. If bears wanted control, they could have sold at higher levels. That would have made for healthier volumes. But that was not the case.

Some analysts are predicting a swift and sure march towards 10000 while others are skeptical, mainly due to lack of volumes in trading. But take a look at the smaller indices on Monday. Despite trading on the NSE remaining suspended for close to three hours, all indices except the BSE FMCG, showed healthy gains. Nifty bank and Nifty IT were the largest gainers while the market romance with midcaps seems to have tapered off with the said index gaining only 99 points in a fired up market. Previously, midcaps used to outperform the wider market by healthy margins.

In such a scenario, traders are advised to adopt a wait and watch policy. They should book profits in stocks that are ruling at levels that make for unrealistically high prices while hold for stocks that have seen higher prices than ruling at present. In any case, if the Nifty slips below 9700 again, there will be panic selling by those buying at current levels. It is a tricky market and moving with the herd can land people in a lot of trouble.