oppn parties RBI and the State of the Economy

News Snippets

  • Rain deficit seen in India in january for the first time in 5 years
  • Heavy snowfall disrupts life in J&K, Himachal and Uttarakhand
  • Centre says Teesta Setalvad's politics is divisive and opposes her plea on conversion law
  • The ASI who shot and killed Odisha health minister Naba Kishor Das might have done so to extract revenge as the minister had rebuffed him
  • Law minister Kiren Rijiju says pleas against BBC documentary are a waste of court's precious time
  • Self-styled godman Asaram held guilty of rape and sodomy. he is already serving life term for another conviction in a rape case
  • Supreme Court to hear pleas against the ban on BBC documentary on Gujarat riots and Prime Minister Modi
  • Adani Enterprises FPO subscribed just 3% in 2 days
  • Hindenburg slams Adani response to its report, says nationalism cannot be an excuse for fraud
  • Gold hits new high in India: traded at Rs 57149 per 10 gms
  • Adani Group companies continue to bleed although Adani Enterprises reversed the trend to gain on Monday
  • Markets end positive after a highly volatile session on Monday: Sensex gains 169 points to 59500 and Nifty 44 points to 17648
  • Satellite images show significant increase in night lights in India with some states growing at 43% in 10 years and some even 400%. Economists consider this as indicator of growth
  • Bombay HC has ruled that there will be no parole for TADA victims in Maharashtra
  • Courts handed out the death sentence to 165 accused in 2022, the highest in 40 years
Investors lose Rs 5.6 lakh crore as Adani Group companies lose 29% market value in three days and the carnage is continuing
oppn parties
RBI and the State of the Economy

By admin
First publised on 2015-09-24 10:51:52

About the Author

Sunil Garodia By our team of in-house writers.
No sooner had Raghuram Rajan cut repo rates by 25 basis points did the stock market go into a downward spiral, shedding 650 points â€" its biggest fall in a month. The market had expected a 50 basis point cut. But was the fall really due to the cut not measuring up to Dalal Street expectations or did the pent up frustration of many factors found a trigger in the RBI announcement? Did the market really expect RBI to go whole hog despite negative domestic and international signals?

These questions do not lend themselves to easy answers. The markets have seen companies report bad to atrocious Q4 results leading to a depressive mood. They have seen solid companies like Tata Steel skip dividend this year. They have seen banks putting out balance sheets where staggering amounts of loans have no chance of recovery. They have seen oil prices firming up. They have seen reduction in demand for white goods. They have read about delayed and weak monsoons. So how did they expect Rajan to go along with their expectations?

What Rajan has done is to follow the middle path. In line with decreased inflation, he has already cut rates three times this year. Now, as he has said, it is upon the government to say how it will tackle a poor monsoon before further rate cuts can be decided upon. This is prudent policy. For, poor monsoons will bring rising food prices in their wake and the first priority will then be to contain inflation. Also, if some states resort to the populist measure of writing off farm loans given the drought like conditions likely to emerge, the equation will change further.

As it is, despite the rate cuts, new investments are not being made as companies are wary of the overall economic scenario. The investments already made in several big ticket projects have bogged down bank balance sheets. For all practical purposes, they are dead investments until the government becomes proactive and boots out the current promoters of such projects. It has become a recurring racket to go into big projects with inflated project cost, garner huge loans from banks, take out as much as one can through various mechanisms (like over invoicing of project inputs, raw materials etc and other subterfuges) and make the project sick. Then, ask for more loans. The government should put a stop to this once and for all.

Rate cuts will serve no purpose in the current scenario. For, it is not likely that the banks will pass on the benefit to the customers, saddled as they are with bad loans and decreasing profitability. There might be relief in high profile sectors such as housing loans, but overall lending rates, especially for industry, are likely to remain the same. There are no good quality borrowers and the banks are wary of lending to every Tom, Dick and Harry. Hence, RBI’s paring of growth estimates for the current year is also correct. A lot now depends on how the rain gods bless the parched fields.