oppn parties The Economy is Not Growing Sufficiently

News Snippets

  • Karnataka HC has ruled that a harassment complaint lodged by a wife after receiving a divorce notice from the husband loses its weight in the eye of the law and quashed the FIR filed by a women against her husband and in-laws
  • 35 people killed in renewed violence in Manipur, 30 of them militants
  • Manipur boils on the eve of Home minister Amit Shah's visit as militants strike, vandalize MLAs home and loot armouries
  • Kerala chief minister P Vijayan says Centre's decision to cut the borrowing limit of the state is 'sadistic' and shows its negative mentality towards the state's development
  • Rahul Gandhi recieves passport, set to travel to the US
  • Centre said that the march-to-Parliament by wrestlers was a 'deliberate provocation'
  • Prime Minister Modi inaugurates the new Parliament building, calls it 'cradle of empowerment'
  • Mamata Banerjee will most likely attend the opposition meet called by Nitish Kumar in Patna
  • With container prices, which were on fire, crashing by 40% YoY, importers and exporters in India heaved a sigh of relief as the burden of high freight costs will reduce
  • In an aim to push lenders to manage risks better after the US financial crisis, the RBI has reviewed bond value norms
  • 14 countries under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), including India, entered into an agreement to boost supply chains and counter China
  • Malaysia Cup badminton- H S Prannoy wins the title beating Weng Hong Yang of China 21-19,13-21, 21-18
  • Yashasvi Jaiswal replaces Ruturaj gaikwad as stand-by opener for the WTC final
  • IPL final washed out due to rain, rescheduled for today, the reserve day
  • In a shameful incident, Delhi Police manhandled international wrestlers when they sought to march peacefully to the new Parliament building to highlight their greivances, detained some top wrestlers
Fifth IPL title for Chennai as Ravindra Jadeja hits 10 off last two balls to spoil the party for Gujarat Titans
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The Economy is Not Growing Sufficiently

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2016-09-13 08:33:07

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
Conflicting Data
The latest set of data released by the Central Statistics Office and data from other sources indicates that while inflation is lower and tax collections are robust, industrial output is at its 8-month low and gross fixed capital formation has contracted again. These figures show that the economy is not recovering.

The data shows that:
* Consumer Price Index based inflation is at 5.05 percent, lowest since March.
* Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted 2.4 percent year-on-year. Manufacturing was the real culprit, going down by 3.4 percent. The alarming thing was that this reversed the trend in June when the IIP achieved an eight month high of 1.9 percent (revised).
* Tax collection at Rs 5.25 lakh crore, in first five months of this fiscal, was 23 percent higher than in the same period last year. The red flag was lower corporation tax collection, which fell by 1.9 percent.
* Gross fixed capital formation contracted again, the second time in two consecutive quarters, which is an alarming signal that shows no fresh investments.

Where is the expected growth?
The economy is not growing. There will be a chorus of demand for rate cuts by the RBI to generate investment. But the RBI may prefer to wait till December. This is due to several factors. The first is the good to very good monsoon that is expected to ease farm prices leading to still lower inflation. Anything below 4.5 percent will be a huge cushion. The second is the expected upsurge in demand for goods in the ensuing festival season, backed by the rise in salaries (as a result of 7th Pay Commission award) and payment of bonus in both government and private sectors. Pumping in more money in the economy at this juncture could be counter-productive and may lead to inflationary pressures.

Rate cut might not happen before December
The RBI might prefer to wait till December to see what surging demand and lower farm prices does to inflation and the IIP before taking a call on lowering interest rates. To many, that would be too late if India is to achieve an 8 percent growth this fiscal, but given the hawkish stance adopted by the RBI in recent times, that is the most likely scenario.